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Comment by ctoth

19 hours ago

I grok that you're not trying to discredit anything, or anything like that but what are you trying to do, if I may ask?

What information are you trying to either ask for or share with us?

The original article is pretty clear, agent swarms and token spend are AI automating AI, and the RSP attribution condition specifically excludes your capital thrown at training concern?

16 comments

ctoth

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cronin101  19 hours ago

I guess my point is that the scaling is coming from capital explosion and it isn’t guaranteed that this will continue scaling as it did (the impending hardware and infrastructure crunch basically guarantees this). The article is pretty strongly projecting this trend to continue but hasn’t acknowledged this factor.

  • Zambyte  19 hours ago

    > the impending hardware and infrastructure crunch basically guarantees this

    I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying a hardware shortage is going to restrict AI development? Because it seems to me like it would just push us towards an even greater focus on efficiency, which is still pushing the Pareto Frontier.

  • mapontosevenths  18 hours ago

    > the scaling is coming from capital explosion and it isn’t guaranteed that this will continue scaling

    Not at all. Have you tried local AI lately? Qwen 3.8 is legitimately much better than SoTA from 1 year ago (Opus 4.1). You can run it on a consumer GPU.

    Qwen Next Flash runs on a DGX spark well and is as good as some things you need datacenter class GPU's to run even today.

    Check out Artificial Analysis if you haven't. Sometimes you don't realize how fast these things are moving, but to compare things from a year ago to today is just wild.

    They aren't just getting better, they're getting more efficient by many orders of magnitude.

    https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence

  • bunderbunder  18 hours ago

    This does rather remind me of how in the 80s we had a big boom in AI research, fueled in part by the development of new & expensive tools that everyone just had to have. And then it dissipated just as quickly when the companies who were pouring money into it started expecting to see a return on their investment.

    • jmcgough  18 hours ago

      Feels different now when the value of AI isn't just theoretical. Anthropic has like $80B ARR, and AI has really only transformed tech and a few limited spaces so far.

      8 replies →

  • lenerdenator  18 hours ago

    I don't think it'll continue on linearly, but it will likely continue.

    We're getting the Claude efficiency talks at work. We're looking at all sort of optimizations, including local models and graphify, to reduce spend. There are people dedicating their nights and weekends to dropping token consumption and cache rebuilding. A few of these will likely catch on and be brought into common use. That will relieve at least a bit of the pressure, and enable some of the scaling to continue.