Comment by Helianthus
12 years ago
>>But one crucial difference between this boom and the last is that the folks in the last boom had to ship or starve.
>Amazing what you can do when you have to.
It's not any different this time around. We just haven't reached the starvation period.
But it's very, very close.
> very, very close
Why do you think this? What are the signals you're seeing?
Most returns on VC are negative, almost all are below-market versus standard investments.
EDIT: On the other hand, it's questionable the degree to which the market valuations of regular investments are being pumped up by our capitalism-and-bailouts-induced capital glut.
... well, in some sense it's the same thing, isn't it?
Facebook's IPO is either symptom of or driving this whole mess.
Here's a bit of nonsense logic for you:
The social craze was clear with Groupon's blunders and Facebook's IPO. That there is a crash coming should have been--and was--clear then.
Ever since then it's only gotten clearer that there's a crash coming, even if those that say "It's soon" were repeatedly proven wrong.
In other words, it is asymptotically becoming "sooner" the more and more it's being proven that "soon" isn't actually that "soon."
(This is, of course, the nature of predicting events that throw up so many signals.)
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What I mean to say, actually, is that you're asking a pointless question. The signals that indicate "Crash imminent!" have long been fired.
When I say it's "very, very close," did you think I mean it's within a year, or within days?
From a certain way of looking at it, it's at the moment of _least_ certainty how 'soon' an event will occur that the event becomes very, very likely to occur. Because that's when we're the _most_ certain that it's inevitable, but the least certain how it will happen!
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The answer you probably wanted: Google Reader's collapse makes it devastatingly clear to the tech world that there's a giant gaping opportunity to displace social media. All of it. App.net thinks too small, and the start-up world's programmers--all of them--are sharpening knives.
So... will Wednesday work for you?
> the start-up world's programmers--all of them--are sharpening knives.
This is an astute observation—that is what we're all doing. But we've become so comfortable creating and sharpening knives that no one has dared make the cut. We're sharpening knives, sure, but that's all we're doing.
There are big things out there waiting to be built. An integrated social system that actually works, and fits within people's lives in a natural way that Facebook and twitter simply don't. There's room to bring in all of our connected experiences in the same way a great chef creates a seven course meal. Artfully. Human. I don't personally believe software has seen the magnum opus of which it is capable, yet.
I loved this article because it's so right. We're all so spoiled that we haven't been able to build the Great Wonder of the Internet. We're just making stones in a disorganized fashion. I have this feeling of desperation that I can barely explain, but I think that like most people who can just see a glimmer of the wonders we could be building, I am too comfortable where I am to act on it and create something truly grand.
Sharpening knives, creating better knives, sorting our knives, admiring our collection of knives. Someday they'll be used for the great art that is bound to come, because it's possible, and like countless cultures before us, we feel compelled to complete what we know is possible.
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Would you mind elaborating why you think App.net thinks too small, and where the market disruption is indicated by how Google Reader collapsed?
Understand that I primarily stare at a shell most of the day, so I'm not completely savvy on newer startups. Google Reader shutting down just made me check out newsbeuter sooner rather than later :). App.net just seems like a Twitter competitor with longer strings; what do you see?
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So what are you doing about it?
Oh, you know. Writing HN comments.