Comment by dlss
11 years ago
"The lawsuit claims that Ivey and his companion instructed a dealer to flip cards in particular ways, depending on whether it was a desirable card in baccarat. The numbers 6, 7, 8 and 9 are considered good cards" from the article linked by https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7580399
FWIW I think almost anyone could gain an exploitable edge by recognizing the direction in which specific cards are returned into the deck if they took it seriously and practiced... it just sounds like a lot of work, and a way smaller edge. I personally think it's more impressive that he socially engineered the dealer.
It's kind of like "good artists copy, great artists steal" only for statistical edges. maybe "good gamblers work hard for an edge, great gamblers have an edge before they sit down"
Yeah, this is extremely interesting to me either way. By knowing which way only one card is facing, you still tilt the deck in your favor ever so slightly. After using the same deck over multiple rounds, I assume you tilt the edge in your favor significantly without even having to give directions on specific cards. It would add to the casino's case for them to argue that he manipulated the dealer to make it seem more akin to an inside job, but I can see how Ivey could gain a significant advantage without even needing any "social engineering."
"it just sounds like a lot of work, and a way smaller edge." If you read Ben Meizrich's Bringing Down the House, you wouldn't believe the degree to which these guys work to get an advantage over the house. There's a part in the book where he talks about how members of the MIT Black Jack Team so thoroughly practiced cutting a deck that they were able to cut stack of decks exactly 52 cards from the bottom. A seemingly improbable feat to do regularly but one that they perfected to the point that it became an integral part of their strategy.
I completely agree the details are interesting -- there are very few things that focus my attention as completely as statistical decision theories.
If you haven't read Ed Thorpe's The Mathematics of Gambling I think you'd love it. It's about finding these edges regardless of the game. Thorpe is fascinating too -- he invented one of the early blackjack counting systems, and figured out how to beat the game of roulette (as crazy as that sounds). He was also one of the first stat arb guys, figuring out how to price warrants and making a killing for the UC Irvine retirement fund.
Also, if you haven't heard of the Kelly criterion, I think it'll basically blow your mind. I think it's the least appreciated house edge there is, and a very cool piece of math.
Thorp is pretty interesting. With Claude Shannon he invented the first wearable computer:
"It's with Shannon that Thorp would revisit a question he had considered years earlier: whether he could apply mathematics to beat the game of roulette as he had done with blackjack. Thorp and Shannon would develop a friendship and, in the process of answering that question, build what is widely regarded to be the first wearable computer."
http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/18/edward-thorp-father-of-we...