Comment by mojuba
17 years ago
I predict (and hope for) a major turn back to simplicity in technologies. Multimillion-line software will go extinct like dinosaurs. Existing programming languages and platforms will gradually be replaced with ones so simple and elegant that one software component will be written and maintained by one to three developers and art designers and not a whole software company packed with managers and other unnecessary staff. Oh, and managers along with poeple who "understand" "software business" but not software will hopefully go extinct too.
You think that three developers and an art designer can singlehandedly write the software that runs a nuclear power plant, let alone Android or Apache? I think you're right in that we will see a continued rise in the prominence and impact of small software shops making single-purpose tools/programs, but large organizations aren't going anywhere, and they shouldn't.
As for getting rid of managers, that won't happen - and nor should it. In a lot of places there is management when there shouldn't be, but when you're working as part of a larger organization - say, more than ten people and/or three "departments" - good management (by someone dedicated to that role) is essential for success.
You think that three developers and an art designer can singlehandedly write the software that runs a nuclear power plant...
Yes I do and I know a case with a document management system created by one developer and one analyst, which is now used by the Government of one country, including ministries and the PM's office. The competing offers for the same Govt were from a few superhuge and well known software corporations, but they all lost it to that application.
but when you're working as part of a larger organization - say, more than ten people and/or three "departments" - good management (by someone dedicated to that role) is essential for success
Actually no. Producing self-contained, self-sufficient software component has, in principle, very little to do with the size of the organization that creates such components. Small departments can be under the same financial roof, but functionally such small groups will become more and more independent in the future I think.
Agreed. Although the successful one developer and one analyst almost certainly are wise enough to stand on the shoulders of giants - using an image-processing library here, an html parser there. Functional programming at the organization level: if you have to coordinate a lot of global variables nothing ever works right.
You sound like a manager.
I upvoted you because I HOPE you're right, not because I think you are right. Managers are like cockroaches... after the nuclear apocalypse they'll be the only ones running around... trying to find underpaid teenaged business analysts to write 86-page requirements documents to give to developers whose time is clearly too valuable to waste understanding business processes.
I have an idea similar to yours: in the far future, software will be ancient, largely bug free, and not be changed much over the centuries. Information management software will evolve to a high degree of utility and then remain static because why change bug free software that works perfectly. Operating systems may be easily themed, but there will be no need to change the core that works and has finally become bug free over centuries of infrequent bug fixes. Think of Asimov's "Spacers" society.
What we think of programming will evolve into using incredible high level scripting languages and frameworks. Programs will be very short.