Comment by erikpukinskis

> it's a bet on being able to muscle into the absolutely massive mobile ecosystem.

The difficulty there is at least 90% of the AR market will be passive experiences, and at least half of those will be hand held, which basically means Apple and Android have already won half of the AR market, they can just photocopy their way to market share the way Microsoft did in the 90s.

And the trouble for headset makers is that handheld market will put some serious network effect pressure on them.

The hope I see is that technical differentiation will provide the moat against Apple and Google, but I have a hard time imagining what tech is going to be so hard for them to copy.

The most sensitive users will just stick to handheld where fidelity doesn't matter. And the most adventurous users will just go where the content is. The HiFi segment is the entirety of VR early adopters right now, but I see them as a thin minority squeezed between those other groups in the endgame (motion averse and content focused).

Although fidelity has some virtuous cycles with content production. So there might be a strategy there for Facebook or Microsoft.