Accurate speculation, which prediction is, is a skill that can be practiced and improved. This has benefits as it makes one better at estimating outcomes. Posting it online also helps keep people accountable. Yeah, there might be some promotion going on as well, but that can be true for anything one posts on line. If you find someone's post valuable, great. If not, that's fine, too.
I agree here and would underscore this point: in the hands of public experts, media talking heads, and many types of charlatan, predictions can be immensely powerful and have tremendous influence over public policy and social behavior. So I consider assessing them for accuracy and holding prediction-makers accountable a public good.
For a compelling book-length treatment of this question, see Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting:
A friend of mine has a client who creates patents for future technologies 5-10 years down the line.
He understands that when this and this scientific breakthrough happens it will be applicable as a or to a technology and then he creates patents for that.
He has quite a lot of patents and make good money on it.
I'm not against predicting things, there's great value in them but usually there is some science behind those predictions.
For example people who manufacture things usually offer a warranty period because they have a fairly accurate prediction model how long it will last before it breaks.
There is value in coming up with a mathematical model to predict the chances of a person paying back a loan used to buy a house.
Insurance companies run prediction models for all kinds of human behavior based on statistics.
But what is the value in random pointless predictions about when flying cars will be at thing? There's no math behind it other than intuition.
Accurate speculation, which prediction is, is a skill that can be practiced and improved. This has benefits as it makes one better at estimating outcomes. Posting it online also helps keep people accountable. Yeah, there might be some promotion going on as well, but that can be true for anything one posts on line. If you find someone's post valuable, great. If not, that's fine, too.
I agree here and would underscore this point: in the hands of public experts, media talking heads, and many types of charlatan, predictions can be immensely powerful and have tremendous influence over public policy and social behavior. So I consider assessing them for accuracy and holding prediction-makers accountable a public good.
For a compelling book-length treatment of this question, see Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting
This project was spun off from the book and is my favorite online forecasting site:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project
Scott Alexander calibrates his predictions http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/02/2017-predictions-calibr...
A friend of mine has a client who creates patents for future technologies 5-10 years down the line.
He understands that when this and this scientific breakthrough happens it will be applicable as a or to a technology and then he creates patents for that.
He has quite a lot of patents and make good money on it.
Not judging just saying.
That sounds so slimy but I guess if all the big players are doing it too, then, if you can't beat 'em...
It's both ingenious and slimy if you ask me.
What is the value to comments like these other than stroking one's own ego?
It seemed to have gotten a few good replies that I hadn't thought of, so it appears to have had some value.
Your comment, on the other hand, is basically serving as a downvote-as-a-comment.
I'm not against predicting things, there's great value in them but usually there is some science behind those predictions.
For example people who manufacture things usually offer a warranty period because they have a fairly accurate prediction model how long it will last before it breaks.
There is value in coming up with a mathematical model to predict the chances of a person paying back a loan used to buy a house.
Insurance companies run prediction models for all kinds of human behavior based on statistics.
But what is the value in random pointless predictions about when flying cars will be at thing? There's no math behind it other than intuition.
Stimulate fun discussion?
Organize your own thoughts?
Teach readers new things in a way that directly ties the information to their current experience?
And so many more.
weather predictions ("forecasts" for the lay person) seem pretty popular. might have something to do with all the lives saved?