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Comment by klenwell

8 years ago

I agree here and would underscore this point: in the hands of public experts, media talking heads, and many types of charlatan, predictions can be immensely powerful and have tremendous influence over public policy and social behavior. So I consider assessing them for accuracy and holding prediction-makers accountable a public good.

For a compelling book-length treatment of this question, see Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting

This project was spun off from the book and is my favorite online forecasting site:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project