Comment by ars
8 years ago
The only one of those with even the remotest chance of happening is the Cryptocurrency one.
A Robocop by 2020? If you had a Robocop by 2090 I'd be shocked. (A remotely controlled Robocop is not a Robocop, you said helped by AI, and that's the part I'm focusing on.)
Just try to talking to one of those assistants like Google Home, and you'll realize just how far away we are from AI.
> [Driverless cars] Today, in 2017, I believe that at least 19 out of 20 people would agree.
Nope, not happening. Driverless cars (except in dedicated lanes) are not going to happen for 20 or 30 years if not longer.
What I do agree will happen is dedicated instrumented lanes for them on freeways (little point in doing it in cities). Kind of like train rails.
But your vision of them transforming cities is not going to happen for decades, if ever.
Personally, I think many of your time estimates are wildly pessimistic. Humanity is on an improvement graph that almost seems exponential - I don't think it would be crazy to see driverless cars in the next 5-10 years, considering how many people continue to get in to this space. There may be strict legislation around it, but that's a different discussion. Similarly, look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released... 2090 definitely seems like a stretch.
We've been able to do driverless cars since the 90s. It's doing it safely while mixed in with normal cars that's the problem. I'm with the other poster that we won't see driverless cars in non-dedicated lanes for at least 20 years.
Edit: actually the article mentions a self driving car from 1987, so even earlier.
look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released
Not far at all. I still struggle to do basic tasks with my Apple Watch 3 (like sending a text to one of my contacts, or automatically start/stop Run app when I start/stop running).
To be fair, look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released can be read as “look how much Siri has been surpassed in quality by other assistants since it was introduced” rather than “look how far Siri has advanced since it was introduced”.