Comment by klenwell
8 years ago
I agree here and would underscore this point: in the hands of public experts, media talking heads, and many types of charlatan, predictions can be immensely powerful and have tremendous influence over public policy and social behavior. So I consider assessing them for accuracy and holding prediction-makers accountable a public good.
For a compelling book-length treatment of this question, see Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting
This project was spun off from the book and is my favorite online forecasting site:
No comments yet
Contribute on Hacker News ↗