Comment by timdellinger
7 years ago
Does anyone have a reference for "In 1966, researchers at the System Development Corporation discovered that the best programmers were more than ten times as effective as the worst." ?
I'm seeing the year 1968 at http://thecomputerboys.com/?tag=black-art#fn-156-1
Is there a 1966 reference out there somewhere? Or perhaps the actual study was done in '66 and didn't make it into press until '68? I didn't pull the original paper.
(The fact checkers at the New Yorker are typically very sharp.)
edit: I pulled the original paper (10.1145/362851.362858). The studies were done in 1966!
Interesting to see the genesis of the myth of the 10x programmer.
It is awesome that you were able to find this. This very well may be the genesis!
For anyone else, that DOI points to: https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?doid=362851.362858 "Exploratory experimental studies comparing online and offline programming performance" from CACM 1968.
"Interesting to see the genesis of the myth of the 10x programmer."
How could it be a myth? Ever see a professional sports player compete against a non professional player? Why wouldnt this dynamic exist in programming?
Maybe I'm unimaginative, but in sports where performance is objectively comparable, I can't think of any where professionals 10x amateurs.
Amateur marathons are about 4 hours, professional are about 2 hours. Amateur deadlifts are about 500lb, professional are about 1000lb. Amateur long jump might be 6m, professional almost 9m.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi are extreme outliers in soccer/football, even compared to other greats. They're probably 10x. Trouble is amateurs don't play in the big leagues, so we don't have data on how a normal person would peform. There is an amusing Ronaldo vs Ronald video. I think it's called "Tested to the Limit."
Occasionally a 1st league team plays a 3rd league. I saw a video of Napoli vs Nowhere go 26-0. They scored about as fast as the game could be reset to kick-off. That's more than 10x.
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I emailed the author and he pointed me towards this copy of it: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/645438.pdf
I haven't read through it yet, but it appears to be a more extensive whitepaper version than the CACM version.
I'm not so sure it's a "Myth" when Jeff and Sanjay are out and about. Honestly, I'm beginning to think it's inherent and can't be taught.