Comment by simplecomplex

8 years ago

Define AI. Define intelligence. Kurzwiel's prediction are nonscientific and unfalsifiable. AGI is unscientific.

He really likes making predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzwe...

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simplecomplex

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tim333  8 years ago

He predicted Turing test by 2029 which is fairly definite, falsifiable and quite likely to be falsified.

For me proper AGI is when you could say to a robot go build some better robots and then have them build even better ones and they can do so without needing us. There will be some year before which if humans disappeared, computers and robots would grind to a halt and after which they could carry on. That's also a definite falsifiable thing, harder than the Turning test and is kind of what I think of as corresponding to the singularity which tends to be rather wooly in it's definition.

jimbokun  8 years ago

I don't think this one happened:

2019: "The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second)."

  • zozbot123  8 years ago

    $4,000 in 1999 would be about $6,000 today. A midrange Deep Learning workstation is in the ballpark, and while it can't "match the computational capacity of the human brain", it can do plenty of nifty things - including beat the current Go world champion in a match.

    • slacka  8 years ago

      No, not even close. 20 quadrillion calculations per second= 20 petaFLOPS. A Nvidia DGX-2 is only 2 petaFLOPS and that "AI" supercomputer costs $399,000. Far cry from $6,000.

      You are just hand waving to try to defend a definitively failed prediction.