Comment by nradov 8 years ago You have no rational basis for that 3 - 5 year estimate. That's just picking numbers out of the air. 10 comments nradov Reply metalliqaz 8 years ago The basis is the complexity growth trend that we have already observed in computing (and most other human endeavors) nradov 8 years ago There is zero evidence that progress toward AGI follows Moore's Law. And we observe much slower complexity growth in most other human endeavors. metalliqaz 8 years ago But there's a lot of evidence that computer power follows Moore's law. All that matters is that the growth is exponential.Evolution took a billion years to evolve multi-cellular life, but the jump from apes to humans took far less than a million years. 7 replies →
metalliqaz 8 years ago The basis is the complexity growth trend that we have already observed in computing (and most other human endeavors) nradov 8 years ago There is zero evidence that progress toward AGI follows Moore's Law. And we observe much slower complexity growth in most other human endeavors. metalliqaz 8 years ago But there's a lot of evidence that computer power follows Moore's law. All that matters is that the growth is exponential.Evolution took a billion years to evolve multi-cellular life, but the jump from apes to humans took far less than a million years. 7 replies →
nradov 8 years ago There is zero evidence that progress toward AGI follows Moore's Law. And we observe much slower complexity growth in most other human endeavors. metalliqaz 8 years ago But there's a lot of evidence that computer power follows Moore's law. All that matters is that the growth is exponential.Evolution took a billion years to evolve multi-cellular life, but the jump from apes to humans took far less than a million years. 7 replies →
metalliqaz 8 years ago But there's a lot of evidence that computer power follows Moore's law. All that matters is that the growth is exponential.Evolution took a billion years to evolve multi-cellular life, but the jump from apes to humans took far less than a million years. 7 replies →
The basis is the complexity growth trend that we have already observed in computing (and most other human endeavors)
There is zero evidence that progress toward AGI follows Moore's Law. And we observe much slower complexity growth in most other human endeavors.
But there's a lot of evidence that computer power follows Moore's law. All that matters is that the growth is exponential.
Evolution took a billion years to evolve multi-cellular life, but the jump from apes to humans took far less than a million years.
7 replies →