Comment by metalliqaz

8 years ago

The basis is the complexity growth trend that we have already observed in computing (and most other human endeavors)

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metalliqaz

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nradov  8 years ago

There is zero evidence that progress toward AGI follows Moore's Law. And we observe much slower complexity growth in most other human endeavors.

  • metalliqaz  8 years ago

    But there's a lot of evidence that computer power follows Moore's law. All that matters is that the growth is exponential.

    Evolution took a billion years to evolve multi-cellular life, but the jump from apes to humans took far less than a million years.

    • nradov  8 years ago

      That's a total non-sequitur. So far there is zero evidence that increases in computing power are getting us any close to true AGI. It's entirely possible that we've been moving sideways, or even backwards, relative to that goal.

      And we can't reliably extrapolate growth in computing power more than a few years into the future. It's possible that the curve isn't really exponential, but rather an S-curve which will eventually flatten out.

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