Comment by arjie
6 years ago
It's just the reversion-to-the-mean effect described elsewhere[0]. It seems bothersome that on a startup news website run by an incubator, the view is that startups aren't a good idea. However, that's only because HN is now what /r/programming+technology+apple+google was, not what HN was. It's not really a startup news website. So I wouldn't worry too much. The people in startups are probably in real-world groups, and the networks are tighter.
I suppose the real problem is that some genuine startup-oriented personality may be dissuaded from working on one, but perhaps the cultural force against them is in the range where it should dissuade someone who isn't more wholly convinced that they know a truth that others do not believe in.
I think it may be counter-productive to attempt to convince people who prefer aiming for the safe money. I think that while attempting to draw a line hits the Sorites paradox really fast, there is quite clearly a difference between someone with your world-view and someone who runs the math on total compensation alone. I think the person with the latter view will not recreate the OP experience because all the choices are very non-independent. The same person who'll take the low-variance high-expected-value out of school will do the same the next time they're faced with a choice and again and again and again ad inf. They provide the selective pressure of optimizing for 'exploit' (in the explore/exploit sense) while the startup-type folks provide the selective pressure of predation.
0: For instance in the geeks/mops/sociopaths view https://meaningness.com/geeks-mops-sociopaths
It may also be that the big pile of folks here with experience in startups have done the math and can argue that working a startup isn't the best way to maximize the outcome of your time.
HN doesn't just have to be a "startups are the best" echo chamber.
I would be surprised if your hypothetical situation more closely models reality than mine. It's possible. I just don't think it's likely.
I would revise my position if more successful founders argue that it isn't worth it and I'd mildly revise it if more failed founders argue that it isn't worth it anymore.
The discussion isn't against startups. It's for giving employees more incentives to join startups, as opposed to repeating the same hoary cliches. The tech industry and cost of living have simply changed from a decade ago. Incentives must increase accordingly.