Comment by clairity
5 years ago
nice application of the learning curve, a model taught in strategy and operations courses in business school.
basically every model from around 2010 badly miscalculated the learning coefficient of the solar industry. apparently some forecasts are still badly calculating it.
The part that boggles the mind is that the forecasts are still terribly wrong, in the same direction, 10 years later.
The forecasts from the IEA are my favourites, predicting a decline in PV expansion every year. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/11/20/iea-versus-solar-pv-r...
The IEA forecast has been so wrong it suggests malice.
I dont understand how you could continue apply learning curve , do we expect solar panel price to fall forever? And labour as well as land cost to fall ?
Some of those are fixed. Even if Labour and Solar are free, you will still have to paid for land. In a way I think this is quit optimistic projection of solar.