Comment by kumarski
6 years ago
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, this is lunatic gambling advice from a systems engineer with a background in polymers who is an American born Indian.
Tibet quenches the thirst of 3Bn people through ~10 rivers in SE Asia.
Kashmir and Tibet are red hot conflict zones and this is through and through a contest of freshwater.
This is a powder keg unlike any other and this scenario is collateral shrapnel.
China has 5% arable land and its water becomes more putrid by the day. 20% of industrial waste water pollution is from textile dye that's dumped into water, and China has cornered the textile manufacturing market.
China uses water for dams. They built something like 20k+ dams in 70 years.
China uses water for agriculture, extremely inefficiently.
China weaponized water data on the Brahmaputra river and it caused downstream deaths in India.
I'm aggressively invested in $DFEN and $BA.
Boeing has 400 vendors in Inda. This will heat up.
MOD and DRDO ain't no joke.
If you were a murderous dictator like Xi Jinping, it would be prudent to kill the muslim minority to ensure a long and stable CCP indoctrinated control of Tibet and all the water brouhaha.
Yes, obviously, long term intense military conflict between nuclear powers leads in incredible security.
While both countries engage in Sabre rattling, its inconceivable that there would be an arms race of the kind that would cause a significant change in the stock price of defense contractors.
A more likely scenario is the upcoming Biden administration steps in and bullies China and/or India into backing down. The hollowing out of the US State department has probably been one of the most underappreciated casualties of the Trump administration.
> A more likely scenario is the upcoming Biden administration steps in and bullies China and/or India into backing down.
Australian here wayyyyyy out of the US political loop. Is Joe Biden looking likely to win? Has he been promising a hard-line stance on China?
He’s up by wide margins in the polls so statistically, yes.
Although, as the 2016 election showed, polls may not always be reliable.