Comment by jryle70

4 years ago

> His stated goal is to do this by 2050. That’s within his lifetime (I hope).

(Responding to your claim elsewhere since reply isn't allowed there)

Incorrect. That's not Musk's stated goal. What he said was:

"Building 100 Starships/year gets to 1000 in 10 years or 100 megatons/year or maybe around 100k people per Earth-Mars orbital sync" - [0]

Nothing at all about having a million people on Mars in 2050. To get a million people to Mars requires ten Earth-Mar orbital syncs, or 20 years. Adding 10 years to get to that 1000 Starships/year cadence. That means they have to achieve 100 Starship/years by 2022 to have a shot at sending a million people to Mars by 2052 (because the next orbital sync is 2022)

Starship hasn't flown yet with the first orbital flight hopefully some time next year. It will be well into 2020s, at the earliest, to get to 100 starships/year production rate. Musk knows that and he didn't state otherwise.

[0] - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217989066181898240