Comment by rtkwe
5 years ago
Yeah the Everett plant only employees 30k according to the Boeing site which is 1% of Seattle's population even if the whole plant went away. It'd hurt to lose for sure but I doubt it will be disastrous the same way it was when steel and cars left other cities.
Everett is an hour's drive from Seattle, and afaik its population is not included in the "greater Seattle area." While many commute, that 30k is nearly a third of the population of Everett.
And Boeing contracts a lot of components that feed that plant. Many of them local, small businesses, spread throughout the region, with that one customer.
Those contractors don't have to be colocated though and only 1 plane is leaving. On top of that it's the 787 which isn't exactly in a good spot. Last I heard there was still an open question of how much work would be involved in getting them flying again.
787 != 737-MAX. The 787’s teething problems were ~8 years ago.
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30k Boeing employees, but I'd like to know how many local contractors, shops and restaurants ultimately depend on this workforce.
Local shops can ship parts to Boeing's other plants and there are other aircraft that will still be made there. For things more tangentially related like restaurants the most threat would be to the ones right there that depend on work lunches, outside of that very local area are at much lower risk because as big as the factory is (and again it's not leaving just losing one plane) it's a small percentage of the local population.
1% of population is substantial. Cumulative US COVID-19 cases are like 2% and deaths are 0.062%.
FWIW, the # of actual COVID cases in the US population is better estimated at ~15% [1]. Only counting verified cases drastically undercounts, because testing has always been very constrained, and many people don't have severe symptoms and therefore don't get tested.
1: https://covid19-projections.com/us
You have to call bullshit in those numbers.
Take a country with good surveillance and reliable death statistics. NZ and/or Australia will fit the bill.
The case fatality rate there is a touch above 3%, mostly in aged care deaths, but with enough in the lower age groups to give anyone who has a comorbidity and is above 40 a quickening of the pulse (854 deaths, 26,942 cases, positive test % has never breached 1% and generally been under half a % so incidence is likely to be close to reported cases).
US CFR at reported numbers isn’t far off 3% and if you take the Excess deaths figures that suggest there has already been more like 250,000 deaths, along with the missed cases, you’re probably closer to the mark. Even if spread is confined tightly to younger age groups with lower death rates, there can be no serious person who believes close to 60m Americans have either previously or Are currently Infected.
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Most of the disruption has been the containment efforts not the dead or sick themselves though. The damage has come from the 12 percentage points of growth in the unemployment rate. It was attenuated a lot when there was the additional unemployment money.