Comment by curtainsforus

You expect 60% of your flips to be heads at the outset. Let's say you flipped it a bunch and you're running at some rate.

How could the past flips of the coin possibly influence the flips you get in the future? The coin hasn't changed, the surrounding area hasn't changed, why would the coin suddenly have a different chance of turning up heads on your next flip? There's no probability god that mucks with random chance to make sure 'runs' are balanced overall. Every coin flip is independent, which means all the coin flips are also independent of the past coin flips.

If you've "had 60%", that means you've had an unlikely run of heads. Let's say the last 6 flips were 5 heads and a tail, a slightly unlikely outcome (3 in 16, I think). What physical force is acting on the coin to make it less likely to be heads, in the future? Why wouldn't it still have a 60% chance of coming up heads on the next flip?