Comment by dehrmann
4 years ago
There's a corollary to the gambler's fallacy that says is P(heads) is 60% and you get 6 heads in a row, the people running the experiment probably lied to you.
4 years ago
There's a corollary to the gambler's fallacy that says is P(heads) is 60% and you get 6 heads in a row, the people running the experiment probably lied to you.
If they said P(heads) is 60% and you get 4 tails in a row, you also might think the people running the experiment lied to you, especially if it happens near the beginning. But there’s a 13% chance in any sequence of four tosses.
but that means you should bet into the bias, not against it.
True; my point was that the person falling for the gambler's fallacy was wrong, but in a sense, so were all the people explaining the gambler's fallacy.