Comment by kirse
5 years ago
Pure EVs will reach a fundamental peak percentage similar to any other car class... Hybrid powertrains are really where the next 20-30 years are headed for the bulk of vehicles. Automotive racing and supercars have demonstrated hybrids are the most effective setup for the past decade, and barring some major breakthrough in battery tech that will all trickle down into consumer cars over the next 0-20 years.
> Hybrid powertrains are really where the next 20-30 years are headed for the bulk of vehicles
It depends what you mean by 'bulk'. I see a major future here for big trucks-- right now, 99%+ of our long-haul tractor trailer semis are pure ICE. There is no way to fully electrify that fleet quickly, so I believe hybrid tech is being seriously underestimated in this space (especially for retrofitting).
I've been expecting to see this emerge for over 5 years, I'm not sure what's taking so long. Likely it's a catch-22 of the industry being resistant to change, while large chunks of (reluctant) investor funded R&D are necessary to make it viable. In any case, I think some larger scale tests are finally being run this year, so I'm looking forward to the results of that.
As far as consumer vehicles go, well... we should electrify almost all of it. Simply the best choice for the majority of use cases. But that's going to take a while, and will affect battery availability, which is all the more reason why big trucks will need a longer transition phase that hybrids are perfect for.
As soon as governments get serious about CO2 emissions, Hybrid powertrains will end up as a "worst of both worlds" position.
Already across most of Europe all subsidies and discounts that applied for "eco friendly cars" no longer apply to Hybrids.
That leaves few people wanting to buy a hybrid - it won't be cheapest or most eco friendly.
Not sure I agree with that. I don't think you realize how many cars have switched over to hybrid powertrains, but are not advertised as a main selling point like the Prius or Volt. Volvo's entire lineup is now hybrid or electric along with their new performance brand Polestar. Mercedes is switching over to hybrid powertrains even on their AMG models. Audi's using hybrid powertrains even on their highest performance models like the RS6 and their ultra luxury vehicles like the A8. Hybrid technology is great for sports cars and offers many advantages over fully electric, most importantly being the weight savings.
It definitely feels like you get some free low end torque in a hybrid as well.
I think the thinking on hybrids will shift from "smaller gas engine with an electric boost to help with merging on the highway" to "range extension option for the electric car." They'll be configured to not even fire up the gas engine until the battery pack is run down enough.
Hybrids are facing real challengers from a combination of PHEV, synfuel, hydrogen combustion and hydrogen fuel cell. While it is the ideal car of today I wouldn't be so sure about the next 20-30 years.