Comment by Retric

The so what is dominance gets eroded at the margins. It’s not the 99% who matter it’s all about what a tiny majority who actually care do everyone that really wants to talk to them will install the app that lets them. Then those people are suddenly spending time on another platform and it snowballs.

What’s really interesting is you essentially need isolation to get a steady state dominance by any one platform, but nobody is actually isolated any more. New platforms win not by slowly growing 5 or 10% a year but by crazy exponential curves where 30% more people install in a single month.

Having said that I don’t mean to suggest WhatsApp is going to die in Brazil tomorrow. Their currently is no real need to move right now.