Comment by MetaWhirledPeas
4 years ago
I must admit I don't understand why it is "cashflow negative". I'm not invested in any crypto, but I have thought about it, and my casual thoughts have come to the opposite conclusion. The higher the price of a cryptocurrency, the greater the interest in mining and investing. It seems like a positive feedback loop to me. Why is it not?
For Proof-of-Work coins, the miners need significant amounts of electricity. Electricity is not free, so maintaining the network costs a significant amount of money. This money is "reimbursed" to them through mining rewards, but since electricity companies typically can't be paid in cryptocurrencies the miners will need to sell (a part of) their mining reward to pay the power bill. This means that there is always a money outflow proportional to the hashrate, which somehow has to be made up from money inflows from users.
A cryptocurrency without users putting in "new" money will slowly bleed out through electricity costs. This will become even more "fun" in the future as all coins will eventually be mined and the ginormous electricity bill will need to be paid through transaction fees alone. This is one of the main reasons Proof-of-Stake is getting so much research btw, since it should use way less electricity.
(The above is true for most currencies btw, even dollars and euros bleed out money because they have to pay mints and central bankers. The difference with those is that there will always be demand for (say) dollars because US citizens MUST pay their taxes in dollars. If they don't, a number of measures up to and including prison can be taken against them. Bitcoin has no such backstop since nobody ever NEEDS a bitcoin to pay off someone. Ransomware is a rare exception)
Is ransomware that rare an occurrence? I could see ransomware being the taxes of web3.
If ransomware ever becomes big enough to rival the cumulative tax bill of a nation state, you can bet that combating it would get a lot more priority. Spec ops teams raiding office buildings in foreign nations type priority.
Countries are very protective of their cash flows.
Imagine if you had the option of buying a piece of gold or a piece of land with good irrigation and good soil. You can plant vegetables on the land and sell those vegetables for other people to eat. Therefor your investment is generating profit and "cashflow". Gold on the other hand just sits there, and you may want to keep it in a safe at a bank and the bank will charge you a fee for storage making it negative cashflow.
The price of gold or land or BTC can go UP or Down, but that depends on market demand of that asset. The nice thing about owning the farm is that even if the value of land goes down you can still sell your vegetables or eat them to stay alive.
Your gold analogy might actually help me make my point. When the California gold rush was happening people went nuts trying to mine for it. Eventually the mining slowed, presumably because the cost to mine it started to exceed the value of it. Bitcoin claims to be this way (you may have known this; I had to look it up), stating that mining will halt at 21 million Bitcoins. But didn't Bitcoin already fork in the past? And won't there always be a new cryptocurrency to fall in love with? Unlike gold, when Bitcoin mining wanes someone can just invent "gold plus" with a few keystrokes and then here we go again. The feedback loop may not be confined to a single cryptocurrency but I still don't understand how it will ever end.
Yes, I agree, this can go on forever. "DeFi", "web3", and then something else
> Imagine if you had the option of buying a piece of gold or a piece of land with good irrigation and good soil.
Why imagine? Both of these things can be purchased in the real world. And yet we see that some people purchase farmland, and others purchase bars of gold. Why is that?
Turns out, people called economists have been pondering such questions for hundreds of years and have developed quite sophisticated and nuanced theories about how humans create, assign, and transact value.
Anyways, thanks for the lesson on “cashflow” but you might want to pick up an economics textbook, you might learn something.
You may want to look up how often these "quite sophisticated and nuanced theories" are accurate.
https://www.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/...
Where’s the value added coming from though, and how far are you from there? If crypto enables someone to dodge taxes, sell drugs, or wire remittances with less overhead, that’s a potential value add [arguably, with externalities]. For how many of such activities do we need byzantine consensus, i.e. can they stay competitive in the long term with solutions built on tradfi & SQL? How much of these gains can be captured from sidelines by, essentially, exchange rate traders? Positive feedback loops without a sustainable value proposition will pop sooner or later.