Comment by ouid

What follows is loose speculation, but I do not think the equilibrium price of a single bitcoin after a crash is any more likely to be $100 than $1. This is due to the anatomy of a bubble.

A belief in the long term value of cryptocurrency is very tightly correlated with ones current cryptocurrency position. The demand curve, then, for cryptocurrency, is extremely steep, and the "buy pressure" for cryptocurrency will not increase tremendously with falling prices, since the people who would generally be willing to buy at these reduced prices, have just lost their life savings.

Likewise, even the poeple who think that crypto is valuable long term know that you can't pay your taxes in it. If people don't believe that it's worth anything, then it isn't. They all know that the price falling could indicate that right this second is the most your cryptocurrency will ever be worth. The more the price drops, the more likely this is to be the case, and the more likely I am to sell. If the sell pressure is greater than the buy presssure at some price, then it is very likely to be the case at every lower price, resulting in catastrophic collapse.

This inversion event is more likely the longer the asset has remained in bubble status, since the optimism proportion of the inflated asset is strictly increasing with price.