Comment by Gene_Parmesan
3 years ago
The reason people say it's a myth is because the study that purported to identify this concept was found to have an extremely small population and confounding factors. In addition if I remember correctly it tried to do this identification by using a contrived programming problem.
There are obviously software devs who are more productive than the average. This is true of every skill. The myth is thinking that (a) companies can somehow identify these people in advance, and (b) it is better to prioritize building a team with these supposed rock stars than it is to build a team of potentially average developers who know how to work together, and then properly manage, support & motivate them. A team of ten properly supported 1.5x programmers will beat out one 10x programmer every time. And in many cases the "I'm a 10x dev" personality type does not play well with others.
I'm a firm believer that any genuinely interested, motivated and at least mildly intelligent dev can be made highly productive by finding the right fit. It's far more important for companies to focus on fit and on ensuring that their own managers actually know how to manage than on trying to tap into a hidden stream of 10x devs.
I guess it boils down to the fact that I think many companies absolve themselves and their mgmt team of blame for poor performance by saying "well we just haven't been able to identify 10x devs yet." They expect to be able to hire a single employee who will save the day for them, rather than hiring and training good mgmt.
First, the "I'm a 10x dev" personality type is not a 10x dev. Arrogance is a sign of insecurity.
Second, I don't think a team of ten 1.5x programmers will beat out a 10x programmer. You either have the depth of understanding and imagination or you don't. Take Linus Torvalds, for instance -- I would say he is a 100x programmer, or perhaps a 10,000x programmer, since he is the author of both Git and Linux -- good luck trying to replicate that contribution with a "well managed team". It is similar in many areas -- 10 guys with Math PhDs do not make one Einstein.
In the context of hiring for a business that is developing a CRUD app, you're usually trying to differentiate between 1x programmers and 0.1x programmers, however -- 10x programmers aren't often looking for work.
Pretty much, it's not about grinding out assembly line CRUD work but vision. Domas is another good example if you ever watch his Black Hat presentations on x86 backdoors he's able to approach topics that are not just technically challenging but in a manner that simply would not be attainable for many.
The irony is most companies doing routine CRUD/simple business apps probably shouldn't hire such people as it's a waste and likely causes bad outcomes and perpetuates the stereotype.