Comment by Retric
3 years ago
I think that’s underestimating just how bad people are at driving. There is little meaningful difference for other drivers from a bunch of self driving cars suddenly blocking traffic and an actual traffic accident.
People aren’t going to trust cars to safely do level 5 if they can’t do level 4 99.999% of the time. So sure there will be occasional stories of i95 blocked for 3 hours due to software bug, but how is that different from a major accident that occurs regularly?
This is the argument self driving car companies are currently trying to make. My contention is this reason doesn't seem compelling to the general public. For whatever reason the public seems more tolerant of human error than machine error. At this point anyway. I foresee a long period of trust-building before widespread adoption.
An interesting experiment would be for Uber to send two cars for pickup, one human and one self driving. And let people choose.
That’s fair. I suspect we are at least 30 years from a drunk to be legally able to order their self driving car home without issue simply due to cultural inertia.
Assuming we get to that point it will probably be another 20 years after that before non self driving is seen in the same way as driving a motorcycle is today. Aka something that’s not suicidal, but defiantly excessively dangerous.
I'd agree with that estimate. But sheesh, 50 years from now seems like forever.
Two final thoughts...
(1) Maybe within the next 50 years devs can instill into AI, some meaning of death. As it is, I find some comfort knowing my driver realizes the difference between a field and a 40-foot cliff along the coast of Big Sur, and our shared theory of mind regarding the consequence of swerving to avoid something in those situations.
(2) Regarding humans being more tolerant of human error. I think this might be because when a human gets in an accident, there is always the ability to reason that person is different than us: old, tired, drunk, distracted, etc. And both the situation and the cognition are unique to one person. Naturally, we would have done something different to avoid the accident, we reason. If an AI gets into an accident, and we know that same exact AI is driving 10 million cars, including our own, that freaks us out a little.
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