Comment by cs702

> Everyone in the industry knows that Tesla is nowhere near the tip of the technology. What Tesla does is _fantastic marketing_.

Between one and two years ago, that was my perception too. But the rapid progress I've seen with Tesla FSD Beta over the past couple of years, and over the last year in particular, has forced me to change my mind. (Note: I'm talking only about Tesla's beta software. Tesla's production software is behind by dozens of versions and is without a doubt technologically inferior to Waymo and Cruise.)

Less than two years ago, I would have said FSD Beta could only deal with the "first 95%" too. Now, my perception is that FSD Beta routinely handles the first > 99% and fails only on < 1% of situations. Moreover, the failures have become more graceful -- e.g., the car will stop at intersections perceived as risky and ask the driver to confirm go-ahead by pressing the accelerator. If FSD Beta continues to improve, sooner or later it will cross the threshold at which it becomes safer than most human drivers.

Of course, IF I see new evidence that contradicts my perceptions, I'll change my mind again. There's no shame in changing our minds when the facts disagree with our views. FWIW, I'd love to see videos of Cruise and Waymo vehicles, filmed by tens of thousands of regular consumers driving autonomously on fully unrestricted roads, with zero editorial input from Cruise or Waymo.