Comment by Nomentatus
4 years ago
Putin assassinated by suitcase-size nuclear weapon in February (many of these are missing in Russia.) War continues. Second similar explosion removes the General first replacing him within a month. War continues but Russia commits less to the fight.
Iran sends troops to Ukranian war; US finally retaliates massively vs Iran's military in the Spring, as soon as the energy situation for Europe is less critical.
Structural change in China leaves Xi apparently still top dog; but now a committee (a reformed standing committee of the Politburo) is in charge. Little changes for citizens however until the next year. Friction between Russia and China after XI kneecapped. Cause unclear. Wolf warrior diplomats removed. Sudden improvement in China-India relations and industrial cooperation (task division.) India then steeply increases pressure vs Islamic citizens, removing their separate legal privileges and more. US-China cyber treaty sealed and seems to take hold. (Chinese knowledge of how much better the West did vs Russia in the Ukranian cyberwar changes their approach.)
Western economy hums, as jobs come home; inflation declines but doesn't disappear. Britain's govt stable.
Three Starship launches, last successful but with most first stage engines destroyed (not reusable) by heat. Space-X begins rapid development of an intermediate vehicle (IV) using a nine Raptor first stage and one or two Raptor second stage (also recoverable) with Falcon-Heavy-like variant to follow (with somewhat heavier payload.) Intermediate Vehicle just misses having a first launch before 2023 ends.
Ukranian war becomes very drone dense.
This is a nice change from the lack of bold predictions. It's also a good list.
It's almost as bonkers as Medvedev's prediction list on Twitter (which I just saw and Elon highlighted to troll him) or will look that bonkers in a year; but flipped.