Comment by mdhb

1. Twitter gets resold for a fraction of the original price tag

It seems clear at this point that without any kind of viable plan to get advertisers, employees, regulators and key content creators back on side the current trajectory will continue towards failure at a rapid pace which which is going to force them to sell.

The original price was already wildly above market rate and the brand has been damaged so much by this point that there is zero chance anyone will buy it now for a similar number.

2. Canvas based web frameworks become viable as an alternative to the DOM.

With the upcoming introduction of WebGPU and WasmGC into browsers next year it is going to start clearing many of the main technical roadblocks that have thus far prevented canvas based frameworks from succeeding.

The best positioned one that comes to mind currently is Flutter which has already developed a pretty successful approach on mobile and desktop and brings a very enthusiastic user base with it.

We are already seeing other platforms like Google Docs for example also moving towards a canvas based rendering system and I expect that trend to continue as the technology improves.

I think the use case will strictly be apps and not pages thankfully but we will start to see a clearer separation between “the web” and “apps that happen to run on the web”.

3. Apple will start to experience problems.

They are currently facing some pretty serious challenges at the legislative level across many of their key markets (EU, UK, AU and US) that is likely going to hit them in a couple of key areas (App store walled gardens, iOS browser competition etc).

At the same time the web platform is starting to really close the gap with mobile for a lot of new use cases that will cause companies to rethink their approach rather than continue to support 2-3 independent platforms with little to no code sharing. This is where you are starting to see Google’s bets on Project Fugu and Apple’s strategy of underinvesting in the web for years start to clash a lot more.

Lastly on the hardware side of the house I expect Apple’s decision to tie their supply chain to tightly to China start to clash a lot more with the general geopolitical environment around them and their sudden rush to try and address that is going to be very painful.

It’s a lot of new problems they haven’t had to face previously and it’s not actually clear that they are in a great position to deal with them.