Comment by yyyk
4 years ago
Tech:
* AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications, and less serious applications could do with existing solutions - Third-world click/content-farms are surprisingly competitive economically.
* Website rendering will edge a bit towards WebAssembly+canvas stacks, essentially the second coming of Flash - the need/desire was always there, mobile is getting more powerful, stacks will adjust back.
World:
* The war in Ukraine will continue back and forth. Over the long run leading to a strategic defeat for Russia regardless of tactical results (The West's logistical superiority will win out in the end).
* The Middle East will flare up, since 'pretend the JCPOA is still viable' can't hold past 2023 (the West will worry about sunsets, Iran will look at its economy and double down as the regime always does).
* Add in shocks from China and the Fed, and a recession is guaranteed. For how long I can't say.
* Relative political stability in most of the democratic world, not that voters are pleased, but they'll stick with the current group for 2023.
Open source text-to-video and text-to-3d is definitely coming in 2023 so the first one is not gonna be right for sure.
They will come but unless the quality is better than what we have for image and text generation, the same thing applies. 95% is not good enough for most serious applications, so it’s not going to replace most jobs.
> AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications.
When a competent specialist has doubts, they can say "I don't know",but ChatGPT is happy to say some non sense. This makes it very unreliable in a way we're not used to.
The thing with content farms is a lot of the listicles etc. trade in currency, e.g. the best five blah-blahs of 2023. In general, that's not the sort of thing that generative AI is really set up for today. That will come as will rewriting press releases with some additional context. But, as you say, major impacts are probably later this decade as opposed to 2023 which will still be in the curiosity phase.