Comment by testplzignore

4 years ago

Going with some completely random things this year so that I look like a time traveler.

- Magnitude 8 earthquake in British Columbia in November.

- Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup.

- JWST breaks.

- Lebron misses 64 games due to a right leg injury.

- TCU wins the CFP.

- Shipping is blocked for 2 weeks on the Mississippi River near Memphis.

- Coinbase collapses. Crypto mostly dead.

- Tom Brady Super Bowl MVP.

- Salesforce buys the remnants of Twitter.

- Toyota buys the remnants of Tesla.

- Lockheed and Northrop buy the remnants of SpaceX.

- Meta buys the remnants of the Boring Company.

- Cocoa shortage causes global civil unrest.

- Amazon forks Chromium and releases their own browser. Requires Prime subscription.

- NATO directly intervenes in Ukraine and pushes Russia out. WW3 trends on Mastodon.

> - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup.

This is, errrr, very specific.

  • It's a great almost-specific prediction! Followers of ancient prophets would be proud. It's the kind of thing that has a 1% chance of being accurate--it sounds very specific because it mentions France, but has ample wiggle room:

    - It includes "any major world leader" not just French leaders;

    - If a world leader of any stripe were to die in a plane crash next March, people would still argue in favor of the prediction being correct, because the line between "not a major world leader" and "a major world leader" is quite fuzzy with room for "reasonable" debate.

    - "Part of an attempted coup" is a great specific-but-broad constraint. What is an "attempted coup", exactly? A "successful coup" would be much more strict, but "attempted coup" leaves both the attempted-and-failed as well as the attempted-and-succeeded variants on the table. Also, one could argue that an "attempted coup" has many possibilities that are not immediately identified as a "coup"--for example, would a violent protest count? What does it mean to be "part of" an attempt? For example, suppose a leader is not part of the attempt personally, but is associated with someone who is. In that case, would the leader who left the country be considered "part of" an attempted coup?

    For context: I grew up Mormon and grappled through many prophecies that seemed incredibly "specific" and somehow, incredibly, turned out to be true. This proved Joseph Smith was a true prophet of God.

> - NATO directly intervenes in Ukraine and pushes Russia out. WW3 trends on Mastodon.

You can do this right now with 4 friends depending on the instance!

<< WW3 trends on Mastodon.

Sir. You have won the internet today. I salute you.

It is funny. It is timely. It works on several layers.

> Amazon forks Chromium and releases their own browser. Requires Prime subscription

Allows click to buy anything you see on any page?