Comment by mrazomor
4 years ago
- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs)
- The age of smart assistants is over
- Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023)
- The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, innovation, and culture which more resemble 90s than 2020s.
- Emergence of a new UI (non-smartphone/desktop/voice/VR)
- Countries start to move away from the fossil fuels for generating electricity. New nuclear revolution.
- New major Internet fragmentation
Year of the Linux again huh. Windows isn’t popular because it’s good, it’s popular because everyone knows it and Microsoft has good enough relations with every large organization in the world. MacOS is too expensive to seriously replace windows. Smart assistants will take off as chatGPT becomes commoditized, but it will look very different since you’ll have to pay for it.
MS has a limited amount of credit. It will expire eventually. If MS makes a bad move, it might kick off an avalanche. People leaving FAANG etc., might kick start new companies that help improving support, breaking the old relations, and building new ones.
And ChatGPT won't take off, IMO. It's a nice piece of tech, but lacks what's needed for productionisation. I didn't even include it in 2023 prediction, as 2023 won't even properly start before people forget it.
ChatGPT is immeasurably better than google assistant. Tons of people use that already, there’s no way they don’t upgrade it. Sure it won’t be the same, but it’ll follow the same idea of a massive transformer trained on the entire internet.
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Windows is popular with users, because they are afraid of Linux, not because they really know how to use it.
Windows is popular with sysadmins because it is easier to administer a large enterprise with it.
Seriously. My joke when Windows users say they don't know how to use Linux is that they don't know how to use Windows either but that doesn't stop them.
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Wishing corporations of the world to be weened off Windows is like Immortan Joe telling the rabble below not to get hooked on water.
I love Linux but let's not kid ourselves. Isn't it a couple of decades now when Linux was supposed to kill Windows and it hasn't ? I say this is more of a wishful thinking.
My impression is that the past predictions were based on Linux desktop winning from the tech & UX side. That's unlikely to happen.
I'm betting on the Windows regression. MS is making it happen. Forced reboots, lengthy updates, forcing people to create Microsoft Account, ads and app store. It's horror. I don't understand how people allow that. In addition, MS Office and similar often change the whole UI or the formats. How the people/companies keep up with that?
> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS
Governments are more strapped for money than ever before, I don’t see them paying a huge Apple tax for no benefit at all.
> The age of smart assistants is over
I don't totally get this one, even with just Whisper and ChatGPT you could build one hell of a smart assistant compared to Alexa or Siri. Maybe it doesn't come out next year, but I bet this category comes back in a year or two.
> Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs)
This is already happening. FAANGs no longer pay the top dollars according to levels.fyi report: https://www.levels.fyi/2022
> and culture which more resemble 90s than 2020s
What was the culture like in 90s? Any articles/books I can read?