Comment by adriancr

In your scenario I would predict that 70-80% of russian nukes and missiles malfunction due to poor maintenance / disobedience / sabotage / some existing only on paper / pre-emptive strikes due to intelligence of imminent attack.

Most of the rest end up being destroyed by already established anti-missile defenses.

Starlink ends up being a missile defense in disguise and Musk ends up being hailed as savior of some US cities after sattelites do kinetic intercepts of a lot of missiles entering space. (even though it would probably be a us dod takeover of the the sattelites)

Putin and company gets gaddafi treatment.

Russia promptly unconditionally surrenders after NATO campaign and nuclear retaliation threats or actual detonations based on how many they got through.