Comment by _kbh_

> - A NATO base is hit with a Russian missile, leading to increased saber rattling but ultimately not to any full-scale war

Theres a decent chance that Russia hitting a NATO base with a missile doesn't cause full out war but it will be more than sabre rattling.

> - There is no peace agreement in Ukraine but there is a temporary cease-fire which is eventually broken by a rogue faction of the Ukrainian military

I don't think there will ever be a cease fire in Ukraine, it only allows Russia time to rebuild their stocks and rearm themselves.