Comment by ekianjo
3 years ago
> On average, and without other context, a random sample will be close to the middle.
The thing is, we typically have a lot of context for every technology we discuss, so bringing back this saying that reduces everything to one-dimension is just silly.
You typically don't, you just think you do much like how stock pickers think they know but end up failing to beat the market average. There's too many unknowns and variables to even come close to an educated guess.
If you are truly an expert, you have a fighting chance. As a human, that means you are limited to a tiny number of specific subject matters.