Comment by BaseballPhysics
3 years ago
So you've provided your perspective on why you think the iPhone wasn't that disruptive at the time (though, given that, a year after its launch, numerous phone manufacturers announced their own smartphones, I think you're rewriting history a bit, but whatever, that's not actually the point of the conversation).
At the same time you've claimed Tesla will be the iPhone of the car world. You claimed "In this way [Tesla] is similar to the iPhone coming in and basically killing Nokia, Motorola and Blackberry."
I'm asking why you believe that. Can you expand on that?
I've heard claims of vertical integration, but that hasn't proven to be a major differentiator, and in fact is turning out to be a liability (see: reliance on China).
I've heard claims of manufacturing automation, but that's turned out to largely be a failure.
I've heard claims about the synergy with Solar City and their battery development, but that's proven to be a very small moat, at best.
I've heard claims about the value of OTA updates for software, but that too hasn't been that disruptive, and now other manufacturers are doing the same.
I've heard claims about their abandonment of the dealership model, but that doesn't seem to have been much of a differentiator, and given their service reputation, seems to have become a liability.
Elon is selling the idea that FSD is the critical factor, but FSD is increasingly looking like an unattainable dream, at least with the hardware platform Tesla currently has in the market.
So what's your take? Why do you still think Tesla will be like "the iPhone coming in and basically killing Nokia, Motorola and Blackberry"? What am I missing?
You've also explained why you think Tesla, at 20 years, hasn't yet had the disruptive effect on the market that you seem you be predicting, laying it at the feet of market structure and so forth.
But you haven't explained why you believe that will change, either.
It is the part just before you cut in my quote: "it's playing against a different set of customer values". That is how Christensen defines a new market disruption. That is not enough for a successful new market disruption, but is one of his key characteristic of one. So I believe the values people are finding in their purchase of a Tesla are radically different than those buying ICE vehicles.
I think that might have been true once but a) the futuristic/revolutionary reputation of Tesla has come down to earth through the trials of the Model 3 and the failure to deliver FSD, and b) Elon's antics, both during COVID and through 2022, appear to have put a sour taste in the mouths of people who bought Tesla's for the values they purportedly represented (sustainability, etc).
So honestly I don't believe this is the case anymore. I think, as more EV competition is entering the market from both new and established automakers, they're now just another EV that happens to have great brand recognition but an eroding brand reputation, a good charger network, average to below average quality, a very weak record on customer service, and a CEO that's just another crazy, out of touch billionaire.