Comment by jonhohle
3 years ago
But is that chaos predictable? Current weather predictions are based on statistical models. Storm trackers, for example, typically have bands that expand as time gets further out. Without knowing every molecule that affects a hurricane, for example, they can predict within some confidence interval where the storm will head. The data meteorologists have is relatively coarse, and yet they can make predictions within some level of probability. That level of probability allows municipalities to issue evacuation orders early as opposed to throwing hands up and saying there is no certainty in anything, so let's just see what happens.
Their discussion of die rolling doesn't say they can predict the outcome, rather that they can predict the probability of the outcome. In trading, life, and gaming that probability is one component of many that go into decision making. Knowing how much that randomness effects the outcome at what probability can be a successful strategy (but of course not guaranteed) in all of those domains.
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