Comment by toomuchtodo
2 years ago
This is caused by the cost of solar declining 89% in the last decade [1]. Batteries are next [2]. Which leads us to solar and batteries powering the world [3]. Extrapolate exponential growth of generation and storage, not linear. There is >1TW of generation and hundreds of GWs of renewables and storage (respectively) in aggregate across all US grid operator queues, for example [4]. Similar story in China [5].
(obvs we have a long way to go, just need to push the pedal to the floor; enough sunlight falls on the Earth in 2 minutes to power humanity for a year [6], and space is not a concern [7] [8])
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37492062 ("Declining populations free up ag land for solar in densely populated countries")
Very informative. Note from your 4th link I wasn't previously aware what "interconnection queues" were. This is a good overview: https://emp.lbl.gov/queues.
Importantly, though, only a small percentage of that capacity "in queue" will actually get built. From your link:
> Much of this proposed capacity will ultimately not be built, however, with only 23% of projects seeking connection from 2000 to 2016 having subsequently been built based on a LBNL analysis of a subset of queues. Only ISO-NE and ERCOT exceeded 30% completion rates, with CAISO performing the worst at 13%.
Good callout wrt queue completion ratios. Unfortunately, there aren't many comparable leading indicators of future generation to rely on (maybe EIA's 860M survey? [1] [2], but it only gives you a short look into the future). Plans are plans until steel is in the ground and glass is getting racked. Open to other suggestions if it improves modeling and forecasting.
Regardless, the amount of renewables and batteries coming online (at least in the US) can't be overstated [3].
[1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/
[2] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/
[3] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c...
> Regardless, the amount of renewables and batteries coming online (at least in the US) can't be overstated [3].
> [3] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c...
The "Other" generating unit type on that map is all over CA and TX. Looking at the source data for the map [1], it's mostly batteries. I'm surprised they didn't break those out as their own category.
1. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/
Great charts. I hope they update them for current years soon. I'm not sure if: the trend continued (because of technologic progress and the learning curve), the trend reversed (because of supply chain issues), or stayed the same because of the combined effects of those 2.
Holy cow that lithium price graph is astounding! It's a log plot that looks like a linear decline in price. It's like Moore's law for lithium..
Moore’s Law is a special case of the more general “Law of Accelerating Returns.”
> In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the exponential growth of the evolutionary process that is technology.
https://www.thekurzweillibrary.com/the-law-of-accelerating-r...