Comment by londons_explore

2 years ago

[flagged]

Counterpoint would be that in such a situation, all it would take is one credible leak to destroy the government's reputation, and there is a lot of incentive to blow the whistle since most people tend to not want to see the people they were working to protect being raped and murdered.

  • It could be the decision of just one or a handful of people. It's easy enough to take all the intelligence reports and decide to put them in a big pile and ignore them till next week.

    If anyone asks, you had too much work and were snowed under by reports, and you didn't think waiting a week would matter.

I think this is a conspiracy theory. Israel was distracted by festivities, leadership didn't rank the info they were receiving correctly.

The previous status quo with no conflict was highly favorable to Israel, they don't win anything by a war as it won't solve any problems. They just want to make sure such attacks will not happen for a longer time.

Extremism is on the rise in Israel as well and even someone like Netanyahu understands this as a problem. Their enemies already completely embraced that, hence the attacks.

  • For a while it looked like they were going to take the northern half of the gaza strip. If that happened, that would be a big gain for them.

    • I doubt land claims are in their interest. I guess the strategy of more autonomy is off the table though and security forces will likely remain a long time.

This theory gains credence when you consider the reports of Egyptian intelligence’s warnings of possible attacks falling on deaf ears.

Netanyahu is pretty unlikely to survive the next elections because of this, so that's unlikely he would approve of this.

And your conspiracy theory requires literally thousands of people to be in on it.

  • Previous Israeli PMs involved in wars have all retired within two years or so. That’s what makes this conspiracy theory hard to believe. It would mean Netanyahu, the consummate politician thought “yeah, my future success depends on tanking the diplomatic process with Saudi Arabia and instead launching a bloody war with Hamas.” Yeah, right.

    - Yom Kippur War (1973). Golda Meir, stepped down 1974.

    - First Lebanon War (1982). Menachem Begin, stepped down 1983.

    - Gaza War, Operation Cast Lead (2008). Ehud Olmert, stepped down 2009.

    Not listing Levi Eshkol because he died of a heart attack a couple years after the Six Day War (1967).

    But sure, the man in charge during the biggest fuck up in the history of the Israeli state deliberately fucked up so he could extend his career. And this fuck up can’t be played off as accidental or bad luck, it’s a direct consequence of his policy of coddling Hamas.

    If you believe that he did it deliberately, welcome to my Bridge Emporium, we’re running discounts today!

    • If that conspiracy is true, you can't assume he knew how bad it would be. This Hamas attack was much more sophisticated than anything they did before.

      Also Netanyahu doesn't look like the kind of a guy that has shame that would make him step down.

  • It would be because it was so bad. But if this was something that Israel typically experiences, then I don't think Netanyahu would have anything to worry about.

    Also he still is in his position and it is just prediction that he will be removed in the future. That doesn't mean much until it actually happen. He already supposed to be gone, but the coalition fell apart.

> the attacks would lead to success for their side.

What success? Israel was already successful - the border with Gaza was quiet, attacks were few. What else exactly were they supposed to gain?

Doubtful. These terrorist attacks are legitimately bad for Israel just like 9/11 was legitimately bad for the US. The attacks bait an overreaction, which then cripples the country's political cachet and financial prosperity. An invasion of Gaza followed by an occupation of 2 million people is expensive to a back-breaking degree for a country of only 10 million. The attack and response will stymie regional normalization talks. The status quo was working just fine for Israel.

Ridiculous. It's unthinkable a modern democratic nation would subject its citizens to rape, beheading, and torture to justify military action.