Comment by loceng
1 year ago
I think it's likely a bad idea at this point to bet against Elon - he seems to make more good decisions than bad decisions, and is able to attract and keep the talent that is enabling his companies to snowball exponentially towards reaching the abundance of the universe.
My deepest hope currently is that the riches of the universe now on the horizon of being relatively easily accessible, in a systematic and efficient way, will lead to the military industrial complex profit seeking to redirect their efforts to mining the riches of the our solar system and beyond, rather than likely mostly inadvertently driving for hell on Earth.
Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance.
You can’t deny (I don’t think) that the things he’s done are amazing. He’s in the zone where he’s smelt too many of his farts though, and believes he can do no wrong, which is historically a very bad place to be. I hope, for all of the awesome things he’s said he’d like to do, that they don’t come agutsa due to that
> Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance.
This is such a baseless and almost comically wrong heuristic I'm curious how it's one you landed on. I'm earnestly curious, do you use the same heuristic in other areas of your life?
If you were in the market for a car, would you let the past performance of other vehicles you've owned influence that decision? It seems to me to be such a simple and fundamental part of decision making, I'm fascinated you've gotten along thus far without it.
I treat my life as a series of independent variables… much like HN comments where sometimes sticking the snappy retort in regarding a brilliant but flawed individual might jolt someone out of their hero worship, but point taken
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> Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance.
Really?
It's my understanding Elon isn't popular anymore (I could care less), but this point does not help whatever it is you're trying to say. I deal a lot with statistics and making predictions from past performance, and you most definitely can determine future performance with a high amount of accuracy. This shouldn't really need said.
You are probably right about him smelling too many of his farts, but you really hurt your main thesis right off the bat with that first claim.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance but not a bad indicator.
Past performance is the only data available to help predict the future.
Don't forget about prophecy
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> the things he's done are amazing
The things he's _purchased_ are amazing.
The things he purchased were fine. They became revolutionary under him.
The man has a lot of flaws and since covid drifted into ideologies I don't agree with. I also wouldn't buy a Tesla. But there is no denying that both Tesla and SpaceX revolutionized their respective industries. And it seems safe to say that neither would have managed to do this without Musk. And at least SpaceX manages to sustain a substantial lead over the competition and continues revolutionizing industries.
This is obviously untrue. what you’re really saying is “I don’t agree with Elons views so it would be uncomfortable for me to think that he has some admirable qualities, so I don’t allow myself to think about it”
SpaceX, the topic of this thread, was wholly started by him, with him being very hands own since the beginning till at least the first F9. Just watch any fab tour with him, be the old ones from 2005 or the new ones at Texas.
He is also a founder at Tesla, as when he entered the round A financing Tesla was just three guys, some networking, and nothing more. Even the "Tesla" trademark and logo registration was made by SpaceX people. He didn't found his own car company with just J. B. Straubel (another Tesla founder who was being paid by him to develop electric car batteries at the time) because he thought it would be better to cooperate with that other group that was was inspired by the same idea and he though he would be able to concentrate more on SpaceX that way. He was wrong and had to take the CEO position on Tesla later to avoid bankrupcy, move the Model S design headquarters to SpaceX, etc. And it's now nothing like what it was when he first put money on it.
It's amazing the mental gymnastics otherwise intelligent people reach for just to allow themselves to feel superior over someone whose politics they disagree with.
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