Comment by joenot443
1 year ago
> Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance.
This is such a baseless and almost comically wrong heuristic I'm curious how it's one you landed on. I'm earnestly curious, do you use the same heuristic in other areas of your life?
If you were in the market for a car, would you let the past performance of other vehicles you've owned influence that decision? It seems to me to be such a simple and fundamental part of decision making, I'm fascinated you've gotten along thus far without it.
I treat my life as a series of independent variables… much like HN comments where sometimes sticking the snappy retort in regarding a brilliant but flawed individual might jolt someone out of their hero worship, but point taken
“past performance is a poor indicator of future performance” is quite a weak statement. It’s the one of the best predictors there is. There are very few exceptions. When you were called out you doubled down with complete nonsense. If everything were a series of independent variables, then every day after work, how do you decide whether to return home to your loving spouse (of many years) and children, why not go to a bar and find some strange? Why bother calling up your longtime friends to hang out, why not go to a bar and talk to the person next to you - a lifetime of (past) friendship is no indication of future kinship! Why bother writing a response to a forum post, when one moment from now, everything will be independent of everything else, and you have no expectations of feeling the same way? Finally, you excuse any flaws in your travesty of ideas by claiming that sniping at “Elon worshipers” is such a just cause that it excuses any sort of flawed thinking. This is a fine demonstration of echo chamber thinking.