Comment by A_D_E_P_T

2 years ago

Sure, fine, maybe the UN report is all wrong -- even though everybody seems to use it.

What's your best estimate of civilian + military casualties in Ukraine, with whatever supporting evidence you care to muster?

Edited to add:

You've edited and added to your post after my response.

In response to your Reddit links, I think that they distract from the main point, which is that the Gaza war has disproportionately affected civilians, even in comparison with the worst of Ukraine's battlegrounds.

Ukraine has depth, and not only can its civilians move west to cities such as Lvov, its citizens have been invited into Europe.

In contrast, Gaza is a sprawling low-rise cityscape with a population of 14,000 people per square mile -- far in excess of anything in Ukraine; nearly double Kiev's population density -- and Gazans are, for the most part, forbidden from leaving. Egypt can't take them, save in special circumstances. All the privation of war is felt by this civilian population -- and, at least to an extent, this is used by Israel as a weapon.

Russia, for all its faults, has a straightforward strategy and straightforward, even realistic aims. I don't think you can say the same for Israel. It's just wild.

6 comments

A_D_E_P_T

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selimthegrim  2 years ago

There were actually some unfortunate people who fled Ukraine for Gaza - families who had Palestinian-Ukrainian marriages back in Soviet times, and more recently, that are now in an out of the frying pan into the fire situation

dralley  2 years ago

> Sure, fine, maybe the UN report is all wrong -- even though everybody seems to use it.

It's not wrong, you're wrong. You called it an estimate of casualties. The UN calls it a list of verified casualties and say that they estimate the number is "far higher".

I don't have a problem with citing those numbers if you call them what they are - the hard minimum that can be independently verified. "at least" 10,000 dead civilians, as opposed to "only" 10,000 dead civilians. That is a significant distinction. "everyone" uses those numbers to make Israel look worse at the expense of whitewashing Russia, which is appalling to me.

An actual estimate is extremely hard to find. It appears that Ukraine estimated in February 2023 that the number of civilians killed was around 100,000. The UN themselves won't say what they think the number is other than that it's "likely far higher" than the confirmed number in one statement, "tip of the iceberg" in another, etc.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-...

Mark Milley estimated around 40k civilian casualties in November 2022

https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/10/ukraine-war-100000-russi...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/civilian-deaths-ukraine-acc...

In any case, the highest the UN was ever able to count in Mariupol was around 2000, whereas there's more than 10,000 fresh graves, many of which are big enough for several bodies, alongside some mass graves. And that was over a year ago, in one city. Dunno what more to tell you.

If you want to compare apples to apples, then Hamas' claims of ~25,000 dead civilians should be compared against the Ukrainian government's claims of tens of thousands of civilian dead. Otherwise don't compare claims against numbers that have been independently verified to be correct (minimums).

And also, oh my god, don't say

> civilians and aid workers are generally moved away from the front, and they're more rarely treated with the wanton disregard and disdain that Gazans suffer.

or

>To all appearances, what's happening in Ukraine is a war, fought by and large by the accepted rules of war. In contrast, I don't think that Israel is fighting a war; they're marauding and taking shots at a densely populated civilian enclave that refuses to surrender to them unconditionally.

Because that's such utter horseshit. Everything the Israelis have ever been accused of doing, the Russians have done in Ukraine. Don't claim otherwise just because those pictures / videos don't get as much traction on TikTok