Comment by JumpCrisscross
2 years ago
> Politically and diplomatically, it could be argued Hamas have been considerably strengthened. They certainly think so.
That's delusional. Hamas’ operational capabilities have been highly diminished. Their leadership is in exile. It looks increasingly likely that their ground forces will be destroyed. While they've found sympathy among the Arab population, it's notable that not a single government--outside Iran--has offered to materially support them. And even Iran is starting to be constrained in its regional capabilities.
Israel isn’t winning. But Hamas isn’t either.
Abraham accords being scuppered, Houthis applying international pressure on their behalf, and most importantly multiple big cases brought against Israel at the ICJ. Not to mention the considerable loss of standing Israel has suffered amongst regular people in just about any country you care to name.
Compare this to the situation prior to October 7.
With regard to your belief that it looks like Hamas ground forces will be destroyed, I doubt this very much. All indications are that this is not happening. Every area that Israel claims to have 'cleared' they are having to return to. Israel claims to have killed some 9000 Hamas militants, but with fatalities of around 32,000 in Gaza so far this would mean almost every one of those fatalities that was not a woman or child was a militant. That's beyond unlikely.
This attack on Gaza will be wound back long before Hamas is eradicated (and this includes the militant wing). When that happens Hamas will emerge in a better position than prior to October 7 and Israel will be in a worse position.
Hamas' stated objective of exposing Israel is being achieved. The Israeli government has been extremely naive and short sighted in this regard.
> Houthis applying international pressure on their behalf
Right. This is the best support Hamas could muster. Unguided pot shots. That’s the point. Nobody real put anything at risk except a proxy force in Yemen.
> attack on Gaza will be wound back long before Hamas is eradicated (and this includes the militant wing)
Doubtful but plausible. That doesn’t bring back the military infrastructure. They’re highly degraded, from the loss of their tunnels to operational supremacy. It’s also naive to imagine Israel isn’t placing surveillance infrastructure that will take Gazans decades to debug.
> Israeli government has been extremely naive and short sighted
Agree. But it doesn’t look like Hamas will win anything. They’ll get a minor PR win, maybe even an ICJ ruling, and their delegates will complain comfortably from Doha for the rest of their careers. But their days as a relevant fighting force appear numbered, though as you say, that’s not a given.
> Hamas' stated objective of exposing Israel
Winning sympathy while losing ground, infrastructure and fighting forces is a terrible trade. (It’s also one virtually everyone who loses a war gets as a consolation prize.)
> Winning sympathy while losing ground, infrastructure and fighting forces is a terrible trade.
Terrible trade with respect to what objective? Hamas never had the capability to defeat Israel in a conventional war. Their infrastructure and fighting forces were a means to a political and ideological end. They are closer to achieving those ends now than before October 7th.
Israel's high-tech export economy, the US diplomatic shield at the UN, and diplomatic alignment and domestic stability in Egypt and other Arab states are things that Israel needs for its long-term survival, and this war is undermining those things. Israel is in a position of strength now, but there may come a day where one of their neighbors surpasses them economically given significantly larger population sizes. Sort of a China vs Japan situation. That will be the real threat. Hamas is a blip in the bigger picture.
That said, this meme that "you can't defeat Hamas because it's an idea" is definitely false. Hamas are not just an idea, they are a government and a military, and just like with Russia's invasion of Grozny (another immortal "idea"), they can be defeated militarily, at great cost to innocent civilians.
3 replies →