Comment by alkonaut
6 days ago
Russia has already anticipated this problem and updated their nuclear doctrine to include nuclear first use also against countries that would "isolate" Russian territory (Presumably thinking of Crimea and Kaliningrad).
Edit: Not sure what the downvote is. It's factually true. I don't think that necessarily means it's a bad idea or that it's a red line that should be observed when all other red lines are obviously illusions.
Russian nuclear doctorine is just words on paper and doesn't mean anything. Their nuclear doctorine already allows them to nuke any NATO country at will because "any attack by a non-nuclear power (Ukraine) supported by a nuclear power (US, UK, France) would be considered a joint attack" and "any attack by one member of a military bloc would be considered an attack by the entire alliance". And even if they didn't, there's no actual opposition that could prevent changing the doctorine as they wish.
TBF, the pieces you mention was just added some weeks ago in what parent refers to by "their updated nuclear doctrine".
It feels really meaningless to talk about "Russia" like this when in reality it's just Putin and his personal discretion, not "Russian nuclear doctrine". It's a dictatorship not a republic.
Russia is an oligarchic republic. It's neither a dictatorship nor a liberal democracy. And regardless of the power he has, Putin is still a product of the system. His eventual successor will quite likely be another similar leader.
Russia is a mafia that owns both a gas station and (unfortunately for its neighbors) nuclear weapons.
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The word "oligarch" has "arch" in it, which means power. What power the supposed oligarchs had over the decision to invade the neighbors and start a massive wealth redistribution inside the country, that practically depraved them of what they had? Lisin refused to call himself "oligarch" in 2018 first, and everyone laughed at him at the time. Maybe he had better insight than the armchair experts, after all.
> regardless of the power he has, Putin is still a product of the system.
Yes, and the system in question is FSB, or vaguely siloviki in general, not the business elite. It's extremely decentralized.
Russia is an oligarchic republic.
Even 10 years ago this was no longer true. Putin completely quashed the oligarchy -- and what he succeeded in building in its place has been by far the strongest one-man system the country has seen since Stalin. The oligarchy will likely have some success in reasserting itself, at least for a while after he croaks/fades in a few years.
His eventual successor will quite likely be another similar leader.
You almost want to wish, right?
The problem with the system he created is that it can only be managed by someone very much like himself. But Putin's really quite unusual, both for Russia and when compared with virtually any leader we've ever known anywhere.
His "successor" will likely be an effective power vacuum, visible to the outside world as an open-ended period of instability. It's entirely possible (likely even) that the security agencies will try to someone up the flagpole again, at least for a while. But it's difficult to imagine that person having the actual battery of intelligence, skills -- and sheer force of will -- to run things the way Putin has.
See also: Такого как Путин - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk_VszbZa_s
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The same could be said for the Soviet Union as well. The nuclear doctrine is just Putin trying to point out that he is frustrated. Luckily nuclear deterrence in general is useless in deterring anything except nuclear attack.
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"nooo sovereign countries can't go into alliances and do what they want within their borders!!!!" - Putin