Comment by jsnell
2 years ago
> Iaonnidis's estimates of IFR in the 0.1% to 0.2% range were much closer to the mark.
The problem is, that was not his estimate for the IFR. It was his estimate for the CFR.
He was predicting 10k dead in the US, which was off by two orders of magnitude. I don't know that anyone was further from the mark than him.
Jay Battacharya, our incoming head of NIH, was pretty close to as hubristically wrong though!
People need to get over their fertilization of contrarianism. Very often, the consensus view is correct.
HAH, whoops. Fertilization was meant to be fetishization.