Comment by inkyoto
1 year ago
> RISC-V isn't competitive in 2024, but that doesn't mean that it still won't be competitive in 2030 or 2035.
We can't know and won't for up to until 2030 or 2035. Humans are just not very good when it comes projecting the future (if predictions of 1950-60's were correct, I would be typing this up from my cozy cosmic dwelling on a Jovian or a Saturnian moon after all).
History has had numerous examples when better ISA and CPU designs have lost out to a combination or mysteries and other compounding factors that are usually attributed to «market forces» (whatever that means to whomever). The 1980-90's were the heydays of some of the most brilliant ISA designs and nearly everyone was confident that a design X or Y would become dominant, or the next best thing, or anywhere in between. Yet, we were left with a x86 monopoly for several decades that has only recently turned into a duopoly because of the arrival of ARM into the mainstream and through a completely unexpected vector: the advent of smartphones. It was not the turn than anyone expected.
And since innovations tend to be product oriented, it is not possible to even design, leave alone build, a product with something does not exist yet. Breaking a new ground in the CPU design requires an involvement of a large number of driving and very un–mysterious (so to speak) forces, exorbitant investment (from the product design and manufacturing perspectives) that are available to the largest incumbents only. And even that is not guaranteed as we have seen it with the Itanium architecture.
So unless the incumbents commit and follow through, it is not likely (at least not obvious) that RISC-V will enter the mainstream and will rather remain a niche (albeit a viable one). Within the realms of possibility it can be assessed as «maybe» at this very moment.
A lot of the arguments I’m seeing ignore the factor that China sees ARM as a potential threat to it’s economic security and is leaning hard into risc-v. it’s silly to ignore the largest manufacturing base for computing devices when talking about the future of computing devices.
I would bet on china making risc-v the default solution for entry level and cost sensitive commodity devices within the next couple of years. It’s already happening in the embedded space.
The row with Qualcomm only validates the rationale for fast iterating companies to lean into riscv if they want to meaningfully own any of their processor IP.
The fact that the best ARM cores aren’t actually designed by ARM, but arm claims them as its IP is really enough to understand that migrating to riscv is eventually going to be on the table as a way to maximize shareholder value.