Comment by ilaksh
1 month ago
I guess part of the point is that the value of the UX will quickly start to decrease as more tasks or parts of tasks can be done without close supervision. And that is subject to the capabilities of the models which continues to improve.
I suggest that before we satisfy _everyone_'s definition of AGI, more and more people may decide we are there as their own job is automated.
The UX at that point, maybe in 5 or 10 or X years, might be a 3d avatar that pops up in your room via mixed reality glasses, talks to you, and then just fires off instructions to a small army of agents on your behalf.
Nvidia actually demoed something a little bit like that a few days ago. Except it lives on your computer screen and probably can't manage a lot of complex tasks on it's own. Yet.
Or maybe at some point it doesn't need sub agents and can just accomplish all of the tasks on its own. Based on the bitter lesson, specialized agents are probably going to have a limited lifetime as well.
But I think it's worth having the AGI discussion as part of this because it will be incremental.
Personally, I feel we must be pretty close to AGI because Claude can do a lot of my programming for me. I still have to make important suggestions, and routinely for obvious things, but it is much better at me at filling in all the details and has much broader knowledge.
And the models do keep getting more robust, so I seriously doubt that humans will be better programmers overall for much longer.
Which is an easier way to interact with your bank? Writing a business letter, or filling out a form?
I suspect that we will still be filling out forms, because that’s a better UI for a routine business transaction. It’s easier to know what the bank needs from you if it’s laid out explicitly, and you can also review the information you gave them to make sure it’s correct.
AI could still be helpful for finding the right forms, auto-filling some fields, answering any questions you might have, and checking for common errors, but that’s only a mild improvement from what a good website already does.
And yes, it’s also helpful for the programmers writing the forms. But the bank still needs people to make sure that any new forms implement their consumer interactions correctly, that the AI assist has the right information to answer any questions, and that it’s all legal.