Comment by ilaksh
1 month ago
o1 proved that synthetic data and inference time is a new ramp. There will be more challenges and more innovations. There is a lot of room in hardware, software, model training and model architecture left.
1 month ago
o1 proved that synthetic data and inference time is a new ramp. There will be more challenges and more innovations. There is a lot of room in hardware, software, model training and model architecture left.
> There is a lot of room in hardware, software, model training and model architecture left.
Quantify this please? And make a firm prediction with approximate numbers/costs attached?
It's not realistic to make firm quantified predictions any more specific than what I have given.
We will likely see between 3 and 10000 times improvement in efficiency or IQ or speed of LLM reasoning in the next 5 years.
> It's not realistic to make firm quantified predictions any more specific than what I have given.
Then do you actually know what you're talking about or are you handwaving? I'm not trying to be offensive but business plans can't be made based on a lack of predictions.
> We will likely see between 3 and 10000 times improvement in efficiency or IQ or speed of LLM reasoning in the next 5 years
That variance is too large to take you seriously, unfortunately. That's unfortunate because I was really hoping you had an actionable insight for this discussion. :(
If I, for instance, tell my wife I can improve our income by 3x or 1000x but I don't really know, there's no planning that can be done and I'll probably have to sleep on the couch until I figure out what the hell I'm doing.
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