Comment by llamaimperative

Take the two sets of numbers and ask someone to draw a diagram of the probabilities.

Your numbers: they will draw something not even close to reality

My numbers: they will draw something close to reality

That’s the whole argument. You are engaged in, again, fully transparent, unconvincing, and unimpressive deception.

And it’s weird because I don’t know who you think you’re convincing. Hopefully it isn’t you!