Comment by pydry

3 days ago

>How vehemently are we talking?

Equal to the amount Israel spends on PR, lobbying and astroturfing to try and downplay this. Which is a ginormous amount.

>To whom?

All of the world that isnt in a western, Chinese or Russian club.

This group is routinely ignored, taken for granted and generally treated with disdain and so far that hasnt backfired too badly.

>How is Ukraine a military disaster?

They've thrown billions of weapons and drastically drained their inventories, achieving nothing except slowing Putin down after jubilantly declaring that he would be soundly defeated on the battlefield. It's transitioned the west's image from that of an unchallenged global hegemon to something of a military paper tiger. This has already resulted in a number of countries transitioning out of the western sphere of influence.

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pydry

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Sabinus  3 days ago

>It's transitioned the west's image from that of an unchallenged global hegemon to something of a military paper tiger. This has already resulted in a number of countries transitioning out of the western sphere of influence.

Interesting. I drew the opposite conclusion. Using (mostly) just NATO's old equipment, Ukraine has fought basically to a standstill what was previously considered the second greatest army on earth. That army and the security guarantees it provides to various dictators are greatly humiliated, especially after Russian allies Armenia and Syria were defeated with their backer Russia lifting hardly a finger in defense, due to it's great commitments and losses in Ukraine.

Meanwhile the US is still ready to fight and win a war in the Pacific and Atlantic simultaneously.

Which countries are transitioning out of the western sphere of influence due to security concerns?

  • pydry  3 days ago

    >Interesting. I drew the opposite conclusion. Using (mostly) just NATO's old equipment

    Not true since 2023. Plenty of the high end stuff was sent - abrams, leopard 2s, patriots.

    There's also a dire shortage of shells to send - the meat and potatoes of a war like this.

    Some of the high end stuff (e.g. F-35s) were also arguably not sent because western military planners were afraid of them performing badly (F-16s performed very badly).

    >fought basically to a standstill

    That's how wars of attrition are. The front line is 1) static for months/year and a half. Then it moves 2) slowly. Then 3) fast. Then collapse.

    It's between 2 and 3 now.

    Unless a peace deal is secured (unlikely, there is no zone of possible agreement) a Ukrainian military collapse is coming and it will be a humiliation for western hegemony to see Russia sweep forward unchallenged on their front door.

    Trump seems to know that it's coming and wants to wash his hands of it while European establishment are freaking out and doing stupid, rash and even Putinesque shit like canceling the Romanian election.

    • mopsi  2 days ago

      > Unless a peace deal is secured (unlikely, there is no zone of possible agreement) a Ukrainian military collapse is coming and it will be a humiliation for western hegemony to see Russia sweep forward unchallenged on their front door.

      Not unless the Russian economy collapses first. Last I heard, industry leaders from key sectors like metallurgy were saying that with a 21% interest rate, the market economy is effectively dead because their margins are nowhere near sufficient to service such debts. They either need government handouts (a thinly veiled return to a planned economy, and we both know what that looked like) or face a complete crash and burn in the currently unfolding corporate debt crisis: https://static.themoscowtimes.com/image/1360/35/Screenshot20...

      > Plenty of the high end stuff was sent - abrams, leopard 2s, patriots.

      Reagan-era Leopard 2A4s are not "high end". The truly high end stuff has performend beyond expectations, particularly the Patriot missile defense system. Quite a few planes were lost, including two rare and prized radar planes, before Russians finally understood that unlike their overhyped "has no analogues in the world" wonder weapons, western tech actually meets and often exceeds offical specs.

      > Some of the high end stuff (e.g. F-35s) were also arguably not sent because western military planners were afraid of them performing badly (F-16s performed very badly).

      Quite the opposite story. The F-35 is treasured so much that no-one wants to risk it being lost, especially with the limited experience UAF has flying western planes. As to F-16s, a single pilot shooting down 6 cruise missiles while equipped with only 4 AA missiles was nothing short of spectacular, and according to seasoned F-16 pilots, shows that Ukrainian air force is developing rapidly: https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-record-f16-win-shows...

      > Trump seems to know that it's coming and wants to wash his hands of it while European establishment are freaking out and doing stupid

      Trump is doing (and seems, more effectively) what every single American president since at least GWB has attempted: to get Europe to increase military spending. If you think this predicts anything positive for you, better brace for a surprise.

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